Background Information:
Michael Burry’s AAPL Disclosure:
On May 16 th, Scion Asset Management disclosed their 13F, which gives us a look into their holdings and more importantly the changes that they have made to their holdings. Some of you might have already been able to connect the dots between “Scion Asset Management” and their founder/manager “Michael Burry”. Michael Burry is one of the most famous investors in recent time thanks to both his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, resulting in a movie about events of the crisis (“The Big Short”) in which he was played by Christian Bale, and his recent short position on TSLA stock that paid off big time.
Burry’s recent popularity has resulted in investors following his every move, and financial information publications relaying his every move to their listeners. Burry recently made headlines again due to the contents found in Scion’s recent 13F filing. The part of this filing that stuck out and made headlines was the fact that Burry initiated a short position on AAPL stock, which consists of 206,000 shares worth approximately $36M. This action stood out for 2 main reasons: it was the biggest change in value over the quarter, and it was the only position in which Burry went short during Q1 2022.
Warren Buffet’s AAPL Disclosure:
On May 2 nd, 2022, Warren Buffet stated that his fun “Berkshire Hathaway” had picked up nearly $600M in AAPL stock during a 3-day sell-off in March. This acquisition brings their total AAPL stake to a staggering 891M shares, worth a market value of $155.5B.
Investors were quick to spot a potential “Heavyweight Bout” between the GOAT Warren Buffet, who is currently long on AAPL and increased his position by $600M in Q1 2022, who is up against one of the most successful short investors of all time “Michael Burry”.
Buffet’s long position heavily outweighs the short position taken by Burry. However, the size of the position will not make a difference in determining who is right and/or wrong over various timeframes. The only thing about this “battle” is that they could both win. If the price falls in the short term, Burry could sell and create a “win”, but if AAPL bounces back and reaches new highs in the month(s) following that, then Buffet could also experience a win of his own.
My Thoughts on AAPL Stock:
I think that both of these heavyweights will end up being correct in their own ways. I think that there is a good chance that AAPL (and the overall market) will fall over the following weeks and/or months. However, I think it would be foolish to take a contradictory position against Buffet in the long run. For this reason, if I had to choose an overall position it would have to be bullish over the long run, and recognize that losses could be experienced in the short term.
I’ll now pass this question on to you now: Who do you think will win in the next month? What about the next 6 months? And what is your thoughts on the AAPL stock? Burry vs Buffet Recent Performance:
By looking at each investors recent (1 year and 5 year) track records, we might be able to gain a better sense of who might prevail in the battle over AAPL.
Over the past 1 year, Burry’s Scion Asset Management (SAM) has experienced a loss of 10%. However, over the past 3 years, SAM has experienced a gain of 196% (44% CAGR).
Over the past 1 year, Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BH) has experienced a gain of 3%. Furthermore, over the past 3 years, BH has experienced an overall gain of 65% (18% CAGR).
Overall, it seems as though Buffet is more consistent; however, his gains are smaller than that of Burry. This makes a lot of sense due to their investing styles and management of risk. At the end of the day it boils down to your thoughts on AAPL to determine whose side you would be on.
Whose side are the analysts/funds on?
Current AAPL Stock Analyst Ratings
Here is the current analyst rating distribution for AAPL. In total there are 28 AAPL analyst ratings.
21 Buys
7 Holds
0 Sells
This data shows that the vast majority of analysts side with Buffet, while no analyst is currently siding with Burry’s stance on AAPL stock. This is beneficial for people who are long, and thus are in agreeance with Buffet. However, analysts are not very reliable, so there is still hope for the bears reading this.
Originally published at https://utradea.com.
